황용하 / 피스모모 평화/교육 연구소 연구위원황준서/ 함스부르크 대학교 황용하 피스모모 평화/교육 연구소 연구위원과 황준서 함스부르크 대학교 DFG 인문학 고등 연구 센터 '지속 가능성의 미래' 연구원이 <Peace Review> 저널에 공동 기고하신 "Out of Fire into the Frying Pan? The Ripple Effect of the Russia–Ukraine War on Korean Denuclearization" 글을 소개합니다. "러시아-우크라이나 전쟁의 여파는 동아시아, 특히 한반도에까지 영향을 미쳤습니다. 1993년 북한이 핵확산금지조약 탈퇴를 선언한 이후, 북한과 더 넓은 한반도의 비핵화를 위한 노력으로 지정학적 안보 프레임워크가 크게 형성되었습니다. 특히 2022년 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 이후 동아시아의 지정학적 환경이 변화하면서 지역 및 글로벌 비핵화 노력에 새로운 복잡성과 장애물이 등장하고 있습니다. 따라서 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁이 동아시아에 미칠 안보적 영향을 분석하고 대처하기 위해서 글로벌 핵 긴장을 고조시킬 수 있는 남북 관계와 역내 핵 군비 경쟁의 잠재적 악영향을 고려해야 합니다." INTRODUCTIONThe repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine War have extended into East Asia, particularly affecting the Korean Peninsula. Since North Korea announced its withdrawal from the Nonproliferation Treaty in 1993, the geopolitical security framework has been notably shaped by endeavors for denuclearization in North Korea and the broader Korean Peninsula. The evolving geopolitical landscape in East Asia, particularly following the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022, introduces new complexities and obstacles to regional and global denuclearization efforts. Therefore, heightened attention is required to analyze and address the security implications of the Russia-Ukraine War on East Asia, taking into account the potential adverse effects on inter-Korean relations and the regional nuclear arms race, which could escalate global nuclear tensions. For decades, heightened deterrence measures targeting North Korea have become imperative for the US and its allies, including Japan and South Korea. Collaborative efforts with China and Russia have been crucial in enforcing coercive measures aimed at deterring North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. Nonetheless, this cooperation appears to be faltering since the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022, partly due to Russia’s growing reliance on North Korea for the supply of weapons, exemplified by Russia’s veto against renewing the panel of experts’ mandate to support the UN Security Council’s DPRK sanctions committee. Divergent perspectives on North Korea’s nuclear weapons further complicate the situation. North Korea views its nuclear armament as a crucial defense against the presence of US forces in South Korea, while the international community perceives North Korea as a destabilizing and untrustworthy actor whose nuclear arsenal threatens regional security. Efforts to mitigate North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, led by alliances involving the US, South Korea, China, and Russia through the Six Party Talks, have faced prolonged interruptions over the years, with no clear indications of a feasible resumption. Moreover, the current fluctuations in the Korean peace process indicate an imminent breakdown, as demonstrated by the diminishing effectiveness of agreements such as the Panmunjom Declaration and the 9/19 Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA). This trend suggests that South Korea is encountering challenges in leading dialogue-based diplomatic initiatives for North Korea’s denuclearization. Complicating matters, there is a growing advocacy within South Korea for its own nuclear capability, subtly questioning the effectiveness of the US nuclear umbrella (Sukin Citation2020; von Hippel Citation2023). This essay is structured as follows: firstly, it provides a counterfactual analysis of inter-Korean relations to elucidate its implications on North Korean denuclearization, facilitating an extrapolation of the Russia-Ukraine War’s influence on the Korean Peninsula. Secondly, it elucidates the actual shifts in inter-Korean relations and the nuclear arms race during the Russia-Ukraine War based on three diplomatic measures. Subsequently, the essay discusses the implications of the nuclear arms race in East Asia within the global context. Lastly, it underscores that while deterrence mechanisms have failed to persuade North Korea to relinquish its nuclear capabilities, limited options remain beyond offering concessions to encourage North Korea to return to the NPT framework, potentially prompting the recognition of North Korea as a nuclear-armed state. 원문 바로가기
