Read PDF Early Warning Briefing for the first half of 2024 PEACEMOMO and the Trans-Education for Peace Institute (TEPI) published the first Early Warning on the Danger of Armed Conflict in Northeast Asia in May 2023. While the phrase "early warning" was new to some, it was welcomed and supported by many as a proposal to detect escalating military tensions in Northeast Asia, to foresee the potential for accidental armed conflict, and to stick together to "prevent" military conflict in the region. A year on, how has the world changed? The full-scale war that began with Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 shows no sign of ending. Casualties on both sides are reportedly more than half a million, continuing to mount. On 13 June 2024, the US and Ukraine signed a 10-year Bilateral Security Agreement in which the US pledged to provide Ukraine with multi-layered military assistance over the next decade, including assistance in developing air and missile defence systems, including the US Patriot system. A week later, on 20 June 2024, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Russia signed a "comprehensive strategic partnership" treaty. It's a treaty that reflects a highly elevated bilateral relationship, stipulating that if either party is under invasion and pushed to war, the other will intervene militarily without delay. The 'New Cold War' that we have consistently feared in the previous Early Warning Reports, but which we have refrained from conceptually finalising, is becoming clearer by the day. Ukraine continues to push for NATO membership. At this month's NATO 75th anniversary conference in Washington, the US, the UK, and Eastern and Central European countries hope to state Ukraine’s NATO membership as confirmed. What is more, Israel's bombardment of Gaza continues, following Hamas' attack on Israelis on 7 October 2023. The number of victims in Gaza reportedly exceeded 37,400 as of June 2024. While the Member States of the United Nations Security Council, except Russia, adopted the US-proposed three-stage ceasefire resolution, and Hamas has welcomed it, it is unclear when a ceasefire will be possible. In addition, in August 2023, Japan began discharging contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the ocean, and concerns continue in fear of another catastrophe that may follow from repeated earthquakes. There are also news reports of rivers flowing with oxidised iron minerals as the permafrost melts in Alaska, turning red. This red water means that the water's dissolved oxygen levels are at record lows, and dissolved metals and minerals are high, close to industrial wastewater levels. The world has been bombarded with news over the past year of what has done more to 'kill' than to 'save', and we know some of us are skeptical about what it means to have a different voice in this world. However, is it not the responsibility and duty of all of us who share this planet to do our best to prevent things from rapidly worsening the world? Dan Smith, Director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), has emphasised that we can find alternatives in an era of multiple crises by considering national security, human security, and ecological security together. PEACEMOMO and TEPI hope to remind everyone that just as peace should belong to all, security should belong to all. PEACEMOMO and TEPI will continue to speak out, together with like-minded people, against the paradox that the more money we spend on military power to ensure our security, the more insecure the world becomes and continue to speak against the contradiction of being concerned about the climate crisis but silent about military activity. The Early Warning Briefing for the first half of 2024 will help us face the realities of the world today, and create a clearer voice for the prevention of armed conflict, individually and also together. July 2024, PEACEMOMO and the Trans-Education for Peace Institute Heated Inter-Korean Relations 9.19 Inter-Korean Military Agreement In November 2023, in response to the launch of a reconnaissance satellite by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), the South Korean government suspended the effectiveness of the no-fly zone established in Article 1.3 of the 9.19 Inter-Korean Military Agreement and resumed aerial surveillance and spy activities. In response, DPRK declared the total abrogation of the 9.19 Inter-Korean Military Agreement, resumed its halted military actions, and fired ballistic missiles into the East Sea. This means that the minimal preventive measures against the risk of military conflict between the two Koreas have been neutralised. Military tensions in Northeast Asia have intensified since the breakdown of the 9.19 inter-Korean military agreement, with residents and civil society along the border complaining of growing insecurity due to frequent military exercises. The 9.19 Inter-Korean Military Agreement is an agreement to ban all hostile acts on the ground, at sea, and in the air between the two Koreas. The agreement is a "following agreement in the military sector for the implementation of the April 27 Panmunjom Declaration" announced after the summit between former South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in September 2018. The contents include the prohibition of hostilities, demilitarising the Demilitarized Zone, demarcating the West Sea as a peaceful zone, taking military guarantees to revitalize exchanges and contacts, and taking military confidence-building measures. Release of waste-carrying balloons by DPRKIn abrogation of the 9.19 military agreement, the DPRK released more than 1,610 waste-carrying balloons into the South on five occasions starting on May 28, claiming to be in response to South Korea's propaganda leafletting to the North. In response, on June 4, Yoon Suk Yeol's government decided to suspend the 9.19 military agreement in its entirety, announcing that it would restore all military activities along the Demilitarized Zone and in the western and northwestern border areas. On June 9, it resumed the operation of loudspeakers to the North, but it was suspended within a day, citing a mechanical failure and concerns from the UN military commander. DPRK Described the two Koreas as two states hostile to each otherIn December 2023, Kim Jong Un, Chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea, announced a fundamental shift in the country's policy toward South Korea at the Workers' Party Plenum, describing the two Koreas as "two hostile states, two belligerents at war," and saying that "there can be no reunification with the Republic of Korea." At the same time, he announced to "consistently uphold the principle of a strong-arm, head-to-head struggle against the United States and its adversaries, and to implement a high-pressure, offensive, ultra-hardline policy." On February 7, 2024, he repealed the law on inter-Korean economic cooperation and abrogated the accompanying agreement. The military hostility between DPRK and South Korea intensified, as relations between the two Koreas, which had been aimed at unification, entered a completely different phase. U.S.-ROK Freedom Shield ExerciseFrom March 4 to 14, South Korea and the United States held the 11-day joint military exercise "Freedom Shield," which utilised land, sea, air, cyber, and space assets to conduct multi-domain operations, neutralise nuclear threats, and infiltrate and eliminate leaders in the DPRK. A total of 48 field manoeuvre exercises were conducted during the exercise, more than double the number from last year, and 12 UN Command members, including Australia, Canada, France, and the United Kingdom, participated in Freedom Shield. The exercise's overt message of military intimidation of the DPRK has raised concerns about reactive military provocations. Yoon's government increases military spending and arms exports to Israel In 2023, global military spending increased by 6.8 percent year-on-year to $2.443 trillion, which translates to 3,375 trillion in Korean won, meaning the world spent KRW 6 billion on the military every minute and KRW 100 million every second. Meanwhile, South Korea's defence budget for 2024 is set to reach KRW 59.4244 trillion, up 4.2 percent from the previous year. And South Korea's defence spending is set to increase in the coming years. According to the 2024-2028 National Defense Mid-term Plan, which the government announced in December 2023, a total of KRW 349 trillion will be spent on Defense, and by 2028, the defence budget is expected to reach KRW 80 trillion. 40% of the defense budget is spent on the "Korean Three Axis" system.Of South Korea's 2024 defense budget, KRW 6.9 trillion ($6.9 billion) is earmarked for South Korea's “Three Axis System" (Kill Chain, THAAD, and Massive Punishment and Retaliation), an offensive system against DPRK. Nearly 40 percent of the KRW 17.6 trillion ($17.6 billion) in total defense spending goes to the Three Axis System. The growing defense spending and strengthening preemptive strike capabilities on the DPRK pose a threat to its neighbors, creating a constant security dilemma in Northeast Asia. Reduced budget for complex crisis responseIncreased military spending means less money for social safety nets and climate change response. In 2024, the Yoon administration has drastically cut the budget for supporting the socially vulnerable and building a social safety net. The carbon neutrality budget announced by the government for 2024 is only one-fourth of the total defence budget. In the face of disasters caused by the climate crisis, routine violence against women, and inequality in education, social efforts to expand the conditions for a "safe life" through disarmament are urgently needed. Continued Arms Exports to IsraelMeanwhile, Yoon’s government has been ramping up arms exports after vowing to make the defence industry a "new growth engine" for South Korea. South Korea is also supplying arms to Israel, which has been committing genocide against Palestinians for eight months. South Korea has already nearly tripled its arms exports to Israel over the past decade. Even since October 2023, when Israel's invasion of Gaza began, the South Korean government has shipped at least $1.14 million worth of arms to Israel, helping to arm Israel in its war crimes. In response, South Korean civil society has collected signatures from more than 10,000 citizens in South Korea and abroad calling on the Defense Acquisition Program Administration to end arms sales and military cooperation with Israel. Summit of Military Allies In April 2024, a series of summits of Northeast Asian leaders were held. While prioritizing cooperation on weapons production and development, as well as system improvements for military exercises, the leaders were also engaged in consolidating their factionalization by labelling certain countries as security "threats." In particular, the scope of security cooperation was expanded to include high-tech AI, cyber, and space. This is an attempt to resolve the security crisis in Northeast Asia through technological and economic cooperation, but there was no willingness to engage in long-term discussions and cooperation for fundamental conflict transformation and peacebuilding in the region. The Ninth ROK-Japan-China trilateral summitOn May 27, 2024, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Chinese Premier Li Chang held their first summit in four years and five months. They discussed ways to cooperate in six areas, including economic and trade cooperation, people-to-people exchanges, public health and aging society in response to climate change, digital transformation of science and technology, and disaster and safety cooperation. While they "reaffirmed that peace, stability, and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia are our common interests and shared responsibilities," they left out "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" from their joint declaration, revealing their differences on the DPRK. The U.S. and Japan summitOn April 10, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held a U.S.-Japan summit, where they said the U.S.-Japan alliance had been upgraded from "ally protector" to "ally fighter" after 60 years, and called each other global partners in solving problems in the Indo-Pacific region and the world. The U.S.-Japan cooperation in the area of military security was a major focus. △ In line with the establishment of the Unified Operations Command, which will unify the operations of Japan's land, sea, and air Self-Defense Forces, the command authority of the U.S. Forces in Japan has been strengthened to enhance the combined operational capabilities of the SDF and the U.S. Forces in Japan; △ the Defense Industrial Cooperation, Acquisition and Sustainment (DICAS) forum will be established to jointly develop and produce advanced weapons such as missiles; △ plans to develop the Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI) to counter "hypersonic (missile) threats";△ and U.S. support for the SDF's development of "enemy base attack capabilities" has been agreed upon. Starting next year, the U.S., Japan, and the U.K. will conduct regular joint exercises, and the U.S., Japan, and Australia agreed for the first time to establish a network of missile defence systems. While Japan has historically banned arms exports under its Peace Constitution, it has significantly loosened restrictions, allowing it to produce and sell state-of-the-art weaponry. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is even discussing allowing the export of "lethal weapons". This is seen as an indication of Japan's ambition to override the Peace Constitution's provision that the country "shall not possess an army, navy, air force, or any other military power," and transform itself into a "normal state" with a substantial military. AUKUS considers South Korea, and Japan as Pillar 2 partnersIn the US-Japan summit, Japan was first mentioned as a possible candidate for 'Pillar 2' cooperation under the US-UK-Australia trilateral security cooperation, AUKUS, followed shortly by South Korea. AUKUS has a 'Pillar 1' plan to provide Australia with conventional nuclear-powered submarines, and a 'Pillar 2' plan to jointly develop and share advanced military technologies across eight areas, including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, cyber security, undersea technology, and hypersonic missiles. The defence ministers of the three countries first mentioned Japan as a possible Pillar 2 partner in a joint statement issued on 8 April during Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's visit to the United States. On 9 April, South Korea was first mentioned, along with Canada and New Zealand, as a Pillar 2 partner. "Our government is open to cooperating with AUKUS in many strategic areas, including advanced technology," said South Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman Lim Soo-seok. On 1 May, during the "2+2 talks" between the foreign and defence ministers of South Korea and Australia held for the first time in three years in Melbourne, Australia, the two countries discussed the possibility of South Korea cooperating with AUKUS Pillar 2. South Korean Minister of Defence Shin Won-sik said, “We welcome the fact that AUKUS is considering South Korea as an additional Pillar 2 partner," he said, "and we will continue to communicate with AUKUS about expanding cooperation on Pillar 2." This move expands the level and scope of military cooperation to counter China, Russia, and the DPRK, further deepening the political factions in the Asia Pacific. Japan-U.S.-Philippines SummitThe day after the US-Japan summit, the US, Japan, and the Philippines held their first trilateral summit and agreed to work together to keep China in check. For the first time, the issues of the South China Sea and East China Sea, which China and Japan dealt with separately, were addressed in tandem. US President Joe Biden stressed that the US-Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty, which obliges both countries to support each other in the event of armed attack from outside, would apply "anywhere in the South China Sea". The three countries agreed to continue their joint maritime patrols and exercises this year and next. The annual US-Philippines manoeuvre exercise, which ran from 22 April to 10 May, took place outside Philippine territorial waters for the first time. The manoeuvre exercise reportedly involved 14 countries, including Japan, as observers. The three countries also agreed to pursue the "Luzon Corridor" project, which would link Subic Bay, Clark, Manila, and Batangas in the Philippines by rail and port, as the first project in the Asia-Pacific region of the "The Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII)", launched by the US in response to China's Belt and Road Initiative. U.S.-Ukraine Bilateral Security AgreementUS President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a security agreement on 13 June at the G7 Summit. The United States agreed to provide Ukraine with military assistance and information sharing over the next 10 years, including continuing to provide training and co-operate in the production of weapons and military equipment. The things the US agreed to provide to Ukraine are: supporting the development of a multi-layered integrated air defence system through air and missile defence systems, including the Patriot system; supporting Ukraine's ammunition production capabilities; modernising its aviation capabilities and strengthening its naval forces; supporting cyber security and critical infrastructure protection capabilities and recovery. The US also pledged to support the development of Ukraine's command and control capabilities, including improved detection, early warning and timely distribution of resources to enhance combat operations, as well as interoperable communications and doctrine and organisational integration with NATO. DPRK is close to China and Russia, far away from Japan DPRK-China-Russia relationsThe movement against a unitary US-centred hegemonic structure is once again recognised in the DPRK's relations with China and Russia. On 28 March, the UN Security Council voted to extend the mandate of the Security Council's Panel of Experts investigating sanctions violations by the DPRK, but the extension was defeated by a veto from permanent member Russia, with China reportedly abstaining. The panel, which was established in 2009 in the wake of the DPRK’s second nuclear weapon test, is due to end its term on 30 April 2024. In this context, the meeting of the 'third in command' of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Zhao Leji, with DPRK leader Kim Jong Un on 13 April, and Russian President Putin's visit to China in May, followed by his visit to the DPRK, demonstrates the strengthening of the configuration between 'DPRK-China-Russia' and the US allies. China-Russia summit Russian President Vladimir Putin who started his fifth term in office and Chinese President Xi Jinping have elevated bilateral relations to a "new era of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation". On the occasion of the 75th anniversary of China-Russia diplomatic relations, the two leaders shared five guiding principles, including the principle of non-alignment, opposition to hegemony, and an orientation towards a multipolar world. In particular, Russia spoke out against the determination of US allies to contain China, affirmed "willing to strengthen communication and cooperation within the framework of regional and international multilateral organisations”, mentioning China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and confirmed “support each other, uphold multilateralism and defend their respective legitimate interests" and unwaveringly adhere to the "one China" principle. DPRK-Russia summitOn 19 June, Kim Jong Un, Chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea, and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement, which includes a provision to "provide mutual assistance in the event of aggression by one of the parties to the agreement," which has been interpreted as a revival of the "automatic military intervention in case of emergency" clause contained in the 1961 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the DPRK and the former Soviet Union (USSR). In response to the pact signed by Kim and Putin, US National Security Council Strategic Communications Director John Kirby called it a blatant violation of sanctions and warned that it could lead to an increased US military response posture in the Indo-Pacific region. South Korea's National Security Chief, Jang Ho-jin, strongly condemned the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between the DPRK and Russia and said the country would reconsider providing lethal weapons to Ukraine. "We have noted the relevant reports," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told a regular briefing, adding that he would not comment as it is a matter of bilateral cooperation between China and Russia. DPRK-Japan relationsRelations between DPRK and Japan continue to be fraught with conflict over the DPRK's ballistic missile tests and the issue of Japanese abductees. On 26 March, Kim Yo Jong, the younger sister of Kim Jong Un, issued a statement saying that the DPRK would "reject any contact or negotiations with Japan," and that the DPRK would not pursue a summit with Japan. She added that the summit would be possible only if the sovereign rights of the DPRK were not violated, meaning the development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, which are prohibited by UN Security Council sanctions against DPRK. In response, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida reiterated his previous position, saying, “A summit is important to resolve all issues with the DPRK." Read PDF